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Restaurants: Starbucks and Dunkin’s competitors reap rewards as visits grow

Why is this Topic Trending?

  • Increasing popularity of small and medium-sized coffee chains.

  • Shifts in consumer preferences toward experiential, relaxed coffee visits.

  • Declining share for major coffee brands despite overall growth.

  • Growing consumer sensitivity to local and authentic experiences.

  • Potential impacts of external factors such as tariffs affecting coffee prices.

Overview Visits to coffee chains across all sizes have increased significantly, with small and medium-sized coffee brands seeing disproportionately higher growth compared to industry giants like Starbucks and Dunkin’. Consumers increasingly favor longer visits at smaller coffee shops, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards a more relaxed, personalized experience.

Detailed Findings

  • Overall coffee chain visits grew by 29% from 2019 to 2024.

  • Small coffee chains increased their market share of visits from 3.2% to 4.4%.

  • Medium-sized chains (BIGGBY Coffee, Dutch Bros) expanded share from 10.8% to 17.6%.

  • Starbucks and Dunkin’ maintain dominance (77.9% combined share) but have seen reduced share in relative terms.

  • Visits longer than 10 minutes increased by 13.4% at small chains, but declined by 8.9% at Starbucks and Dunkin'. Medium-sized chains saw growth in both short and long visits.

  • Consumer demand growth slowed towards the end of 2024, signaling a potential plateau.

  • Smaller coffee brands emphasize unique local experiences, appealing to a sense of community and authenticity.

  • Major brands have begun responding, notably Starbucks re-focusing on in-store experiences under new leadership.

Reasons for Increased Visits to Small Chains

  • Enhanced focus on personalized customer interactions and friendly service.

  • Unique, locally-sourced menu offerings that differentiate from large chain standardization.

  • Atmosphere and ambiance designed to encourage extended visits and social gatherings.

  • Strong community ties and local engagement activities, reinforcing loyalty.

  • Consumer preference for authenticity and support for small businesses.

Counteractions by Starbucks and Dunkin’

  • Starbucks is refocusing on enhancing the in-store experience by investing in store renovations, creating more comfortable and inviting spaces.

  • Both Starbucks and Dunkin' are innovating menus with localized items and specialty beverages to capture consumer interest.

  • Dunkin’ is emphasizing speed and convenience, investing heavily in digital ordering systems and loyalty programs.

  • Starbucks is increasing its community involvement and launching initiatives to reinforce its brand authenticity and appeal to local values.

  • Strategic partnerships and collaborations with local artisans and suppliers to enhance local appeal.

Key Takeaway Smaller and medium-sized coffee chains are successfully capturing consumer preference for a relaxed, experiential coffee occasion, leading to potential vulnerability for Starbucks and Dunkin’.

Main Trend Experiential Coffee Culture: Consumers prefer coffee shops that offer a relaxing and personalized experience, beyond just convenience and speed.

Consumer Motivation Consumers increasingly value ambiance, comfort, and personalization in their coffee shop visits.

What is Driving the Trend?

  • Desire for third-place experiences, providing community and leisure.

  • Shift in perception of coffee visits as a valuable social and personal time.

  • Rising consumer awareness of the value in spending quality leisure time in inviting environments.

Motivation Beyond the Trend Consumers seek deeper connections with local communities and personalized experiences, not just transactional efficiency.

Description of Consumers the Article Refers To

  • Age: Predominantly Millennials and Gen Z.

  • Gender: Mixed, with slight female skew.

  • Income: Middle to upper-middle class, willing to pay premium prices.

  • Lifestyle: Urban or suburban, socially active, prioritizing experiences and social connections.

Conclusions Small and medium-sized coffee chains are well-positioned to capitalize on experiential consumer preferences. Major chains need to pivot toward experiential offerings to retain market dominance.

Implications for Brands

  • Emphasize store ambiance, comfort, and personalized service.

  • Balance operational efficiency with quality consumer experiences.

  • Enhance loyalty and retention through experiential engagement rather than mere transactional convenience.

Implications for Society

  • Reinforcement of local community-oriented business models.

  • Greater appreciation for smaller, personalized retail formats.

  • Potential influence on broader retail and hospitality sectors embracing experiential models.

Implications for Consumers

  • Increased access to diversified coffee experiences.

  • Higher consumer expectations regarding in-store experience.

  • Enhanced opportunities to support local and community-based businesses.

Implication for Future Brands must continually adapt to shifting experiential demands or risk market share erosion. Consumer expectations will increasingly demand innovative and authentic experiences.

Consumer Trend Coffee as Community: Increasing value placed on social and community-based coffee experiences.

Consumer Sub Trend Slow Coffee Movement: Preference for longer, more engaged coffee visits that promote relaxation.

Big Social Trend Localism and Personalization: Preference for businesses offering authentic, localized experiences.

Worldwide Social Trend Third-Place Evolution: Shift towards spaces that provide comfort and community beyond home or workplace.

Social Drive Search for Meaningful Connections: Consumers desire genuine, meaningful social interactions and relaxed spaces.

Learnings for Brands to Use in 2025

  • Prioritize comfortable, inviting store environments.

  • Offer unique, locally inspired menu items.

  • Invest in training staff for enhanced customer interaction.

  • Utilize consumer feedback loops for continuous experience refinement.

  • Leverage data analytics to tailor experiences to consumer preferences dynamically.

Strategy Recommendations for Brands to Follow in 2025

  • Develop distinct experiential concepts within existing store formats.

  • Leverage loyalty programs emphasizing community and personalization.

  • Promote brand authenticity and local engagement.

  • Use targeted marketing campaigns highlighting experiential elements and local connections.

  • Expand strategic partnerships with local businesses to amplify community presence.

Final Sentence (Key Concept Summarizing All Trends) Coffee brands must embrace experiential authenticity to secure future consumer loyalty.

What Brands & Companies Should Do in 2025 to Benefit from the Trend and How to Do It

  • Enhance in-store environments to reflect local culture.

  • Use targeted community engagement strategies to deepen brand connections.

  • Foster meaningful customer interactions through tailored experiences.

  • Adopt flexible operational models to respond to changing consumer needs rapidly.

  • Utilize digital engagement to complement and extend physical experiences.

Final Note

  • Core Trend: Coffee shop visits as meaningful social rituals.

  • Core Strategy: Personalize coffee shop experiences through ambiance and service.

  • Core Industry Trend: Movement towards experiential retail.

  • Core Consumer Motivation: Desire for social engagement and relaxation.

Final Conclusion The shift towards experiential coffee shop visits signifies a fundamental change in consumer preferences, creating strategic opportunities for brands that embrace community-focused experiences.

Core Trend Detailed Consumers increasingly see coffee visits as opportunities for personal and community enrichment rather than mere transactional exchanges, driving growth in brands that cater to these deeper experiential needs and redefining industry standards for consumer engagement.

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