Restaurants: Consumers plan to tighten their restaurant spending this summer
- InsightTrendsWorld
- 2 hours ago
- 10 min read
Why it is the topic trending:
Shift in Consumer Spending:Â The article highlights a significant planned decrease in restaurant spending by American consumers in the upcoming summer compared to the previous year.
Economic Pessimism:Â This shift is linked to growing pessimism about the current and future state of the economy, as indicated by consumer sentiment surveys.
Trade-off for At-Home Cooking:Â The article suggests a direct trade-off, with consumers planning to cook at home more often as a way to save money on dining out.
Impact on the Restaurant Industry:Â This planned reduction in spending has significant implications for the restaurant sector, especially after a challenging previous year.
Reasons Behind the Pullback:Â The article delves into the various reasons why consumers are choosing to dine out less, including budget constraints, control over ingredients, and concerns about restaurant quality and service.
Overview:
The article discusses findings from a new survey by KPMG indicating that American consumers plan to reduce their monthly spending at restaurants by 7% this summer compared to the previous year. This shift is attributed to growing economic pessimism, with consumers intending to "recalibrate" their budgets and cook more meals at home. The survey reveals that a vast majority of respondents are eating at home more frequently to save money due to budget constraints, along with other factors like wanting more control over ingredients and dissatisfaction with restaurant quality or service. This pullback in restaurant spending follows a year of slow growth for the restaurant industry, making the upcoming summer a potentially challenging period.
Detailed Findings:
Consumers plan to spend 7% less per month at restaurants this summer compared to last year.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey tumbled by more than 10% month-over-month in April, indicating economic pessimism.
Sales of frozen pizza have jumped, suggesting a trade-off for dining out, a trend also seen during the 2009 recession.
The US frozen pizza industry generated $6.5 billion in annual revenue in 2024, remaining well above pre-pandemic levels.
Sales at most pizza chains were somewhat muted during 2024, averaging -1.5% growth.
The US is expected to lose about $90 billion from a reduction in foreign tourism in 2025, impacting restaurants as tourists spend a significant portion of their money there.
75% of consumers plan to cook breakfast at home this summer, while 67% and 68% plan to do the same for lunch and dinner, respectively.
Nearly 50% of consumers said they are eating at home far more often, while 20% said they are eating at home slightly more often.
85% of consumers said they are eating at home more to save money due to budget constraints.
Other reasons for eating at home more include more control over ingredients (36%), restaurant quality/service not worth it (36%), family quality time (25%), and food safety concerns (24%).
Consumers expect to decrease their average monthly spending across most categories, except for groceries and automotive.
92% of consumers said their cost of living has increased, including 74% who said it has increased by more than 5%.
Layoffs spiked by 205% in March, the third-highest monthly total recorded.
The U.S. Department of Education is restarting the collection of defaulted student loan payments, impacting about 5 million Americans.
60% of respondents have started tracking their expenses more carefully, while 25% have dipped into their savings accounts.
More than 70% of respondents expect a recession in the next year.
Sales at the top 500 restaurant chains increased by just 3.1% in 2024, their slowest annual increase in 10 years.
Key Takeaway:
American consumers are planning to significantly reduce their spending at restaurants this summer, primarily driven by economic concerns and the rising cost of living, leading to a greater preference for cooking meals at home to save money. This shift poses a challenge for the restaurant industry, which is already facing a slowdown in growth.
Main Trend:
"The Summer Spending Shift: Consumers Opting for Home Cooking"
Description of the Trend:
This trend describes the anticipated significant reduction in restaurant spending by American consumers during the upcoming summer, driven by economic pessimism and increasing budget constraints. This pullback is expected to result in a greater emphasis on cooking meals at home as a primary strategy for saving money, marking a notable shift in consumer spending habits related to food consumption.
What is Consumer Motivation:
Consumer motivation includes:
Saving Money:Â Budget constraints due to the rising cost of living are the primary driver.
More Control Over Ingredients:Â Preference for knowing what goes into their food, potentially for health or dietary reasons.
Dissatisfaction with Restaurant Quality/Service:Â Some consumers feel the value proposition of dining out is not worth the cost.
Family Quality Time:Â Eating at home provides more opportunities for families to connect.
Food Safety Concerns:Â Some consumers may feel more secure about the safety of food prepared in their own kitchens.
What is Driving Trend:
The trend is driven by:
Economic Pessimism:Â Negative outlook on the current and future state of the economy.
Increased Cost of Living:Â Rising expenses across various categories are squeezing household budgets.
Job Security Concerns:Â Spiking layoffs contribute to financial anxiety.
Resumption of Student Loan Payments:Â Impacts the disposable income of millions of Americans.
What is Motivation Beyond the Trend:
Beyond immediate financial concerns, this trend might reflect:
A Return to Home-Centered Activities:Â Economic downturns often lead to people spending more time and money at home.
Increased Cooking Skills:Â Some consumers may have honed their cooking abilities during recent times and are more confident cooking at home.
Description of Consumers Article is Referring To:
The article refers to American consumers across various demographics who are planning their spending habits for the upcoming summer.
Age:Â Not explicitly broken down, but the findings seem to represent a broad range of adults in the US.
Gender:Â Not specified as a differentiating factor.
Income:Â The focus on budget constraints suggests that consumers across various income levels are feeling the pinch of the rising cost of living, although the impact might be more significant for lower and middle-income households.
Lifestyle:Â Includes individuals who are planning to adjust their spending habits in response to economic concerns, with a particular emphasis on dining out versus cooking at home.
Conclusions:
American consumers are planning to significantly cut back on their restaurant spending this summer due to economic anxieties and rising costs, opting instead to cook more meals at home to save money. This shift presents a significant challenge for the restaurant industry.
Implications for Brands (Restaurants):
Potential Decline in Revenue:Â Expect reduced customer traffic and lower overall sales during the summer months.
Increased Competition for Fewer Dining Dollars:Â Restaurants will need to work harder to attract the consumers who still choose to eat out.
Importance of Value Proposition:Â Need to clearly demonstrate the value of dining at their establishment.
Opportunity to Focus on Takeout and Delivery:Â Consumers might still opt for restaurant food for convenience but choose to eat it at home.
Implication for Society:
A widespread reduction in restaurant spending could have economic impacts on the restaurant industry and related sectors.
Implications for Consumers:
Consumers will likely need to adjust their summer dining habits, potentially spending more time and effort on meal planning and preparation at home.
Implication for Future:
This trend suggests a potential cooling of the restaurant industry in the short term, with a greater emphasis on value and at-home food consumption.
Consumer Trend (Name):
"The Economically Cautious Diner"
Consumer Trend (Detailed Description):
This trend describes the behavior of consumers who are becoming more cautious with their spending on dining out due to economic concerns, such as rising costs of living, job insecurity, and the anticipation of a potential recession. This leads to a greater emphasis on saving money by cooking at home and a more selective approach to choosing when and where to dine out.
Consumer Sub Trend (Name):
"The Return to the Home Kitchen"
Consumer Sub Trend (Detailed Description):
This sub-trend highlights the increasing inclination of consumers to cook and eat more meals in their own homes as a strategy to manage their budgets and potentially have more control over their food.
Big Social Trend (Name):
"Economic Uncertainty Shaping Consumer Behavior"
Big Social Trend (Detailed Description):
Widespread economic uncertainty and concerns about financial stability are significantly influencing how consumers make spending decisions across various sectors, including food and dining.
Worldwide Social Trend (Name):
"Global Consumer Response to Inflationary Pressures"
Worldwide Social Trend (Detailed Description):
Many countries are experiencing inflationary pressures, leading to similar patterns of consumers cutting back on discretionary spending, such as dining out, and prioritizing essential expenses.
Social Drive (Name):
"Seeking Financial Security Through Spending Adjustments"
Social Drive (Detailed Description):
The underlying social drive is consumers' desire to feel more financially secure by making adjustments to their spending habits, particularly in areas considered non-essential, like restaurant dining.
Learnings for Brands to Use in 2025:
Consumers plan to significantly reduce restaurant spending this summer.
Economic concerns are the primary driver of this shift.
Consumers intend to cook at home more often across all dayparts.
Value will be a key factor for consumers who do choose to dine out.
Strategy Recommendations for Brands to Follow in 2025:
Focus on value-driven menu options and promotions to attract budget-conscious consumers.
Highlight takeout and delivery options as a convenient alternative to dining in.
Emphasize the quality and experience of dining at your establishment to justify the cost.
Consider offering family-friendly deals or promotions that cater to those looking for affordable quality time.
Final Sentence (Key Concept) Describing Main Trend:
"The Summer Spending Shift: Consumers Opting for Home Cooking" reflects a significant pullback from restaurant spending driven by economic caution, with consumers prioritizing cooking at home to manage their budgets.
What Brands & Companies Should Do in 2025 to Benefit from Trend and How to Do It:
To benefit from "The Summer Spending Shift: Consumers Opting for Home Cooking" trend in 2025, restaurant brands should strategically adapt their offerings and marketing to appeal to the economically cautious diner by emphasizing value, convenience for at-home consumption, and highlighting unique experiences that justify dining out. This can be achieved by:
Developing Value-Focused Menus and Promotions:Â Introduce more affordable menu options, bundled meals, and special promotions that offer significant value for money to attract budget-conscious consumers.
Enhancing Takeout and Delivery Services:Â Streamline and promote takeout and delivery options with appealing packaging and potentially discounts to cater to consumers who prefer to eat restaurant food at home.
Highlighting Unique Dining Experiences:Â For consumers who do choose to dine out, focus on creating memorable and special experiences (ambiance, unique menu items, exceptional service) that justify the cost compared to cooking at home.
Communicating Quality and Ingredient Transparency:Â Emphasize the quality of ingredients and preparation methods to assure consumers that the dining experience is worth the expense.
Leveraging Loyalty Programs and Personalized Offers:Â Utilize loyalty programs to reward repeat customers and offer personalized discounts or promotions to encourage continued business during this period of tightened spending.
Final Note:
Core Trend:Â The Summer Spending Shift: Consumers Opting for Home Cooking
Detailed Description:Â Economic concerns are driving consumers to significantly reduce restaurant spending and cook at home more this summer.
Core Strategy:Â Emphasize Value, Convenience for Home Consumption, and Unique Experiences
Detailed Description:Â Restaurants should focus on providing affordable options, easy takeout/delivery, and special reasons for consumers to choose to dine out.
Core Industry Trend:Â Increased Price Sensitivity in Dining
Detailed Description:Â Consumers are becoming more price-sensitive when it comes to dining out due to rising costs of living.
Core Consumer Motivation:Â Seeking Financial Savings and Control Over Food Choices
Detailed Description:Â Consumers are primarily motivated by the need to save money and have more control over their meals by cooking at home.
Final Conclusion:
The anticipated pullback in restaurant spending this summer presents a significant challenge for the industry. Restaurants that proactively address consumer concerns about cost and offer compelling value, convenience for at-home consumption, or unique dining experiences will be best positioned to navigate this economic recalibration and potentially maintain or even gain market share.
Core Trend Detailed:Â The Summer Spending Shift: Consumers Opting for Home Cooking
Description:Â This core trend describes the anticipated significant change in consumer spending habits during the upcoming summer, where American consumers are expected to substantially reduce their expenditures at restaurants. This shift is primarily driven by increasing economic pessimism and budget constraints, leading to a conscious decision by a majority of individuals to "recalibrate" their spending by cooking more meals at home across all dayparts as a direct strategy for saving money. This trend marks a notable move away from dining out and towards greater reliance on home-prepared food.
Key Characteristics of the Trend (summary):
Reduced Restaurant Spending:Â Consumers plan to spend less money dining out compared to the previous summer.
Increased Home Cooking:Â More individuals intend to cook their own meals for breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
Economic Anxiety as Primary Driver:Â Concerns about the current and future economic climate are fueling this shift.
Preference for Saving Money:Â Budget constraints are the overwhelming reason for choosing to eat at home more.
Pullback Across Most Spending Categories:Â Restaurant spending is part of a broader trend of consumers tightening their belts.
Market and Cultural Signals Supporting the Trend (summary):
KPMG Survey Data:Â Indicates a planned 7% reduction in restaurant spending this summer.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey:Â Shows a significant drop in consumer confidence, reflecting economic pessimism.
Increased Frozen Pizza Sales:Â Suggests a direct trade-off with dining out, mirroring trends from the 2009 recession.
Anticipated Reduction in Foreign Tourism:Â Expected to further negatively impact restaurant revenues.
High Percentage of Consumers Eating at Home More Often:Â Survey data confirms a significant shift towards home-cooked meals.
How the Trend Is Changing Consumer Behavior (summary):
Prioritizing Grocery Spending:Â Consumers intend to allocate more of their budget to groceries to facilitate increased cooking at home.
Reducing Frequency of Dining Out:Â Individuals will likely choose to eat at restaurants less often to save money.
Planning More Home-Cooked Meals:Â Consumers will need to dedicate more time and effort to meal planning and preparation.
Seeking Value When Dining Out:Â Those who do eat at restaurants will likely be more conscious of price and value.
Potentially Utilizing Takeout and Delivery Differently:Â May opt for takeout/delivery as a compromise, enjoying restaurant food at a lower cost in their homes.
Implications Across the Ecosystem (summary):
For Brands (Restaurants):Â Expected decrease in customer traffic and revenue, necessitating strategies focused on value and takeout/delivery options.
For Retailers (Grocery Stores):Â Anticipated increase in demand for groceries and cooking-related products as more consumers cook at home.
For Consumers:Â Will need to adjust their dining habits and potentially allocate more time to meal preparation to manage their budgets.
Strategic Forecast:Â The trend of consumers opting for home cooking over restaurant dining this summer is likely to persist given the prevailing economic anxieties. Restaurants will need to adapt quickly to cater to a more budget-conscious clientele, while grocery retailers can expect a boost in sales. This shift may continue beyond the summer if economic conditions do not improve significantly.
Final Thought:Â The summer spending shift towards home cooking reflects a significant recalibration of consumer priorities in response to economic uncertainty, presenting both challenges for the restaurant industry and opportunities for grocery retailers as households prioritize saving money and maintaining control over their food choices.
